Ukraine may fight until 2033, or even 2044, according to Russian estimates

Source: Forbes Ukraine 

In a recent closed-door briefing at the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE), Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR), revealed some intriguing insights into Russia’s calculations on the duration of Ukraine’s war effort.

According to Budanov,  Russia has projected that if Ukraine were to mobilize all citizens aged 18 and older, the conflict could potentially last until 2033. If the age limit were lowered to 16, as Russia has also considered, the war could stretch all the way to 2044. However, the Ukrainian spy chief admitted that mobilization remains a complicated issue for Ukraine.

While military service involves “obligation, routine, and risk”, it also embodies “true freedom—defending one’s country and serving the nation”. He likened it to investing in both personal and collective liberty, contrasting it with the “alternative” of Russian control.

Budanov said Ukraine’s goverment probably had made some ‘mistakes’ in its conscription campaign and is now working to fix thems. He also dismissed the claimes that Ukaine is “running out of manpower”.

It is clear that war can go indefinitely as no economy can sustain it,  but while Ukraine’s largely relies on external funding, Russia is doing it on its own dime, and Moscow leaders are clearly aware of it.